Is nice to see that we have users from all around the world, even if nearly 50% are from English speaking countries. Image 1.
How old are you?
The average age of a /OnePiece user is 23.62 years old. We have roughtly 10% of users that are underaged, and 10% that are 30 years old or more. Image 2.
There is no surprise there. For the others, we have some Gender Fluids, transgenders, Bigenders, quite a lot of Non-binary, a Loli, a Furry, and nearly a 100 Oden (You wish), as well as some rude people, but I won't put up what they said.
Manga or Anime?
No real surprise here either. Considering the subreddit has a lot of spoilers and is focussed around the chapter release, it's obvious there are only a few Anime Only people here. So thank you for Sticking Around, even if it the best place to avoid spoilers.
For approximately how long have you been following One Piece?
1 Year or less
10 years or more
Nearly 40% of our users have followed the series for 10 years or more. (To give an idea, this mean they followed the series since Before the timeskip, as chapter 597 was released at the end of August 2010). For the rest, we have roughly the same number of new readers that stays with the series. So it's quite good to bring new blood and not have a decrease of new readers.
Where does One Piece rank on your list of favorite manga?
Bellow Top 10
Well, you are in /OnePiece after all. So it's kinda obvious the manga is either your favorite or in your top 3. If it isn't your number 1, what series are better than One Piece for you?
Do you own One Piece Merchandise?
Those are some good numbers I would say, 55.8% of users have some merchandise and are probably supporting the series (depending on where you bought those) For the OTHERS answers given, some good ones are : autograph from dub VA of brook, Alvida pre devilfruit bodypillow, Chopper teddy bear, Sountracks, Custom made and 3D printed Keychain, Databook.
Subreddit Section :
Do you visit OnePiece mostly on mobile or on desktop?
Mobile or Apps
If you are using desktop, are you using the old version of reddit? Or the redesign?
It seems like most users are using Mobile and Apps, as well as the redesign on desktop, so it's probably time to pay more attention to that than to the old version, this way we can get banners/flair for users that are on the new version of reddit.
How often do you make : a submission on OnePiece?/Comment?/read the rules?
Very often (Daily)
Very often (Daily)
Check the rules :
Very often (Daily)
This really shows that there are a lot of lurkers on the subreddit. Most of you won't ever post or comment on the subreddit. With 8% of users creating submission and 25% commenting. As for the rules, there isn't any surprise since nearly every post respect the rules. (Only 1/5 of the post needs to be removed), so thank you to all of those that read them.
Content you enjoy the MOST/the LEAST.
Content you enjoy the most :
Media (Photo and Video)
So without surprise, people in this subreddit enjoy the Theories/discussions the most out of every type of post, it's then followed by the Fanarts. Which is good since like 75% of posts made are Discussion (50% total)/Fanarts (25% total). Content you enjoy the least:
Here there aren't any content that most users enjoy the least, but it still seems like users don't want to see that much Merchandise or Cosplay post. (Youtuber video are very rare) Also, a quick reminder, Discussion/Theories are mostly found by sorting by New. This is where you will see all of them, as it's hard for them to show up on the front page of the subreddit (but if it shows up on Hot, then it's a very good one).
Do you only use the subreddit for the Spoiler and Chapter Discussion thread?
It's nice to see that roughly 2/3 of the users are here for more than just the Spoilers and Chapter discussion. But there is still a huge part that only use the subreddit for that.
Do you want the spoilers gone from this subreddit?
As it was expected, Luffy is the Favorite Straw Hat for a lot of peopel, he's also the Straw Hat with the fewest "Least Favorite". After him Zoro is second favorite, followed by Sanji, Robin, Usopp, Brook, with the other Straw Hat having very few votes (and Nami having the Least "Favorite" Straw Hat.) After that, it seems like Chopper, Usopp, and Franky are the one people like the least out of the Straw Hat. I know it was a hard question for some of you, but the result are still interesting to know.
Which Strawhat has the saddest backstory?
The Straw Hats with the saddest backstory is Robin! Followed by Brook, then Sanji, Chopper and Nami.
What is your favorite Yonko crew?
So the favorite Emperor's crew are the Red Hair Pirate! Which is very impressive since we haven't seen much of them. I guess Oda better delivers when it come to see them in action after Wano.
Who is your favorite Admiral?
While Garp was only a Vice Admiral, he was put in the poll, and he won it! Whitout him, it's Aokiji that is the favorite, followed by Fujitora. Image 4
Who is your favorite Supernova (outside the Straw Hat)
Who else than the character that nearly managed to defeat Luffy in the 5 popularity poll? Law is the Favorite Supernova outside of the Straw Hat!
Which is your favourite canon arc in One Piece?
The Favorite Canon Story arc are (You could vote for more than 1) :
Which is your least favourite canon arc in One Piece?
The Least Favorite Canon Story arc are (You could vote for more than 1) :
Long Ring Long Land Arc
Favorite Cover Story?
Enel's Great Space Operations
From the Decks of the World : "The 500.000.000 Man Arc"
The Stories of the Self-Proclaimed Straw Hat Grand Fleet
Ace's Great Blackbeard Search
Straw Hat's Separation Seria
Character Design in One Piece :
Do you like the female character designs in One Piece?
I have no opinion.
Do you like the male character designs in One Piece?
I have no opinion.
It's true that Oda isn't the best when it comes to Female character design. However it seems like the majority of users don't have a problem with that.
Are fight a determining factor for your enjoyment of the series/arc?
Now this is rather surprising I must say. What do ou thing about this?
What is/are your (absolute) favourite aspect(s) of One Piece?
From the result we have, it seems like the World-Building is the favorite part of One Piece (With 88.6% of voters choosing this). It's followed by The Adventure (69%), The characterization (54.4%), the Inter-character relationship (49.4%), the Action (36%) and the Art Style (26.2%). And those result are obvious. Some of the most upvoted chapters of this subreddit are when we have huge world building moment, like 907 (Shanks talks to the Elders), or 957 (ULTIMATE).
On Par with Pre-TS
Better than Pre-TS
Worse than Pre-TS
This question is one of the most asked. With a lot of vocal voices saying that post TS is worse than Pre-TS. It's different for sure, but now we know how the community feels about that.
If you could eat a Devil Fruit, what type would you want?
Most people could choose to eat a Logia, and it seems like becoming a Furry is the lesser choice in this subreddit.
The Final Antagonist of One Piece will be :
With 48.5% it's Blackbeard! Really? That is surprising for me since it's obvious that Oda will make the SH fight against the World Government after they find the One Piece. And I honestly don't see Blackbeard being the final Antagonist because of that. So people who voted for this, what was your reasoning for it?
What is One Piece Biggest Flaw?
Some of the biggest flaws mentionned are :
The Lack of characters' death outside of Flashback
Which are all fair flaws to the series.
Random Questions about the Series :
As of Wano, is Jimbei stronger than Zoro?
Yes but Zoro will be stronger soon
I guess people really want Zoro to always be the second strongest no matter what... I expected this result, but I was still disappointed...
Was Zoro as strong as Luffy just after the timeskip?
I... Really? 31.5% said yes?
Will Sanji get laid by the end of the story?
Nearly the perfect split, and it's easy to see why it's very divisive. (Also shows that every vote counts).
Will Usopp be part of the 1 Billion Club by the end of the story?
The Straw Hats will go to Laugh Tales :
Before fighting the WG
After Fighting the WG
It's been hinted at a lot that the SH will go to Laugh Tales before taking on the WG. So for me it feels rather strange to have more than 1/4 voting for them reaching the final island after.
Who will be the one to defeat Kaido? (So give the last hit)
With 66.3% of the votes the one who will give the last hit to Kaido is : Luffy! Followed by 11.5% with someone else (that isn't Law/Kid/Zoro/Big Mom/Scabbard/Admiral) and 11% by one of the Scabbard. Zoro received 6.4% of the votes.
Who will be the first SH to realize their dream?
Most users believe that Usopp will be the first one to realize his dream! I also think the same as it's the easiest Dream to realize really. I could bet you it will happen in Elbaf. After that, we have Luffy and Robin, and it make sense since their dreams are linked. Both can be done once they reach Laugh Tales.
How many members will the crew have at the end? (With Luffy)
And most people want 11 members total in the crew! (With 28.6%), 27.5% wants 12 members, wile 19.8% want the crew to be complete right now with Jinbe.
Who do you think wins in a 1v1 : An Emperor or an Admiral?
If you are active on the subreddit, you know it's one of the question that creates the most discussion/arguments about. So it's nice to know the overall opinion of the subreddit on this question (Doesn't mean it's always correct mind you).
Is Mihawk emperor's level?
Also a very divisive question on this subreddit.
Is Aokiji emperor's level?
Is Akainu emperor's level?
So they fight for 10 days in a very close battle. With Akainu winning in the end, but after a long and hard fight. And one is Emperor's level while the other isn't? Really? I find that hard to understand.
If Oden was alive would he be stronger than Mihawk
How strong was Oden at the time of his death?
< Top 20
I like Oden, but sometimes I feel like people are overestimating him.
Who is stronger between Shanks and Mihawk?
This is also one of the question creating the most arguments on this subreddit, after all Mihawk is the World Strongest Swordman. But Shanks is an Emperor and became one after losing his arm.
Is Kaido stronger now that 20 years ago?
Yes, he's stronger
Had Ace survived, would Wano be liberated by now?
Could the Marines take on ALL the Yonko at the same time ?
Yes in Marineford only
2 at the same time
3 at the same time
This question is also linked to how you see the Emperor vs Admiral. So depending on which side you are on, you are more likely to pick Yes or No.
Which character do you want focus on next?
All very good choices, and all of them are character we have known for a long time without really knowing.
Will Blackbeard find the One Piece before Luffy?
How strong is Monkey D. Dragon?
< Top 10
Here, most people seems to think that Luffy's father, Garp's son is part of the strongest characters of the series. Oda better respond to our expectations then. As for his Bounty : Well, 31.6% think it will be more than 6 Billions and 28.1% think it will be between 5-6 billions. That remind me, I once made a poll asking people what Sabo's bounty would be (since we knew it was getting revealed in a magazine soon). So maybe I will do the same for Dragon? That could be nice.
Who is currently the strongest Emperor?
I wonder if the recent chapters made people change their perception on this...
What are the fights you would want to see?
Blackbeard vs Shanks
Garp vs Rocks
Garp vs Roger
Mihawk vs Shanks
Akainu vs Aokiji
How long do you think One Piece has left? (At a rate of 40 chapters a year)
Image 5. As you can see, most people think One Piece has at least 5 years left to go on. We will know Oda is terrible with respecting his own objectives. And this is good. The more One Piece the better.
On a scale from Spandam to Whitebeard/Roger, How strong is Im?
For this question, it seems like most people put Im at the same level as Whitebeard/Roger with 28.6% voting Im being there. I honestly don't know how strong I want Im to be.
What arcs, after Wano, do you want?
The arcs people want the most are :
The Final War
Red Hair Pirates
So arcs teased for years (Elbaf/Laugh Tales/Final War) and about character that people want to see (Vegapunk/Red Hair pirates).
How is Blackbeard able to use multiples Devil Fruits?
More than 1 soul
It's one of those question were people have very different opinion about. And right now there isn't really a major concensus in the fandom, even if the theory about it being related to the Yami Yami is more popular. In the Other catergory, there was the Cerberus Devil Fruit option, Blackbeard being a Triplet, him being actually 2+ kids in a trenchcoat, him being a failed Vegapunk experiment, having several stomachs him being pregnant (Stop reading fanfiction), him putting the power inside his rings, being a great guy and him being a cunt.
Haki is :
Image 6 Overall, People like Haki in the series, with a 4.38 out of 5!
How many arcs are left after Wano?
Image 7 Here, it seems like the answer for the community would be 4-5 arcs left. Which would then make (base don the How long One Piece has left), like a year per arc on average.
The final war of One Piece will be :
SH+RA vs WG+Marines vs BB
SH+RA vs WG+Marines
SH vs RA vs WG
I just don't see Blackbeard being in the final war, as my opinion is that he will be dealt with before it. For the other answers, there was Straw Hats vs Blackbeard Pirates, Family of D vs vs im sama, Total civil war in marines, Straw Hat vs Shanks, Straw hat vs Pound, Zoro vs World Goverment, Dugongs vs buggy.
Will Luffy die at the end of One Piece?
Will Luffy die?
An ending were Luffy died wouldn't be a good ending for me. He needs to survive and go on more adventures.
Are Shakky and Rayleigh Mihawk's parent?
Will the crew still be together at the end of the series?
Yes, they will keep going on adventure together.| 57.6% o, they will move on, like the Roger Pirates| 42.4% Like with Luffy living, I want the Crew to stay together, and sail together for many more adventures. I could see them taking breaks from time to time, but them staying together would be the best ending for me.
Can the Red Line be destroyed with Ancient Weapons?
What is the biggest mystery left to be revealed?
The most common answers were : The Void Century, the Will of D, Im, The One Piece, Joy Boy, Luffy's mother and Who is Pandaman?
What is the One Piece?
Here, there was plenty of : "No idea", The friends we made along the way, a Devil Fruit, Knowledge, Uranus, History, a book, my mom.
What sort of Devil Fruit do you want to see in the story?
The most common answer was : Water Logia! Followed by Wind Logia and people wanting more mythical Zoans.
What is the craziest theory you believe?
Here are a few of them :
Shanks is a Celestial Dragon
That Vegapunk is going to flip a switch in the Pacifista programming to fight the marines at the end.
Luffy's mom was a celestial dragon
Devil fruits are all artificial from the void century
That Finland doesn't exist
Zoro is going to get Rodger's disease
D's were the original Celestial Dragons
Weevil was made by Vegapunk using Whitebeard's cells and then was discarded until Bakkin picked him up
One of the Roger Pirates (probably Scopper Gaban) is on Laugh Tale waiting for whoever finds it, sort of like how Crocus and Rayleigh seem to be positioned to monitor rookie pirates
Onigashima is an Oarz like skeleton and Big Mom is gonna bring it to life.
The different races came from other planets/moons
Tama is a Kurozomi
Ussop is a descendant of Mont Blanc Nolan
Luffy hatched from an egg.
The fish that bit Shanks's arm off was Joyboy's pet
Bon chan is Kin'emon's son
Oda no longer draws the manga
bonney and ace having a child
That Perospero is going to help kill Big Mom.
Dragon being former Admiral
What are your favorites? And here it is, the 500K survey! Took me far too long to make, as I underestimated the time needed to sort the answer and create this post. Like damn. I hope you enjoyed it. The anwers for the Survey Saga will be up next in some time.
You’re probably closer to independence than you realize
Financial Independence, as most spreadsheets frame the idea, is the art of replacing your spending with investment returns. More quietly stated is an implicit promise that after you’ve done it, you’re free. Chasing that freedom is an incredible motivator if you’re anything like me. And you’re probably at least a little like me, if you’re on this subreddit. Except, of course, we all know you’re never completely free. The outside requirements on a human life don’t stop at the financial. You still have to go to the doctors office to make sure your body is running OK. You need to take out the trash. Your desk gets messy and you have to clean it up. You feel guilty if you forget send your mom a card on her birthday. You’re not free, you’re still a human being. Just a human being with a lot of flexibility. And, of course, once most people do the math, it becomes clear that in order to get spending low enough to make it work, your part time job effectively becomes frugality. Being frugal isn’t a terrible part time job. You autonomously set your own schedule, it gives you an opportunity to be creative, you develop skills which have an impact on your life, such as gardening and thrifting. Frugality challenges your comfort levels at times, which in turn allows you appreciate luxury when it’s available. For me, it’s pretty much the checklist for what counts as an incredibly satisfying job. I don’t have a problem with any of this. And as a thoughtful person who’s put some brain time into designing your life, you already implicitly know everything I’m saying. But it’s useful to say explicitly. I sat down this week to write a plan for what I would do if I lost my job tomorrow, and was barred from full time employment for the rest of my life. I was not shocked to discover that even without 100% FI savings, I could design several options for lifestyles where my FI goals of satisfying work, low stress, extreme autonomy, meaningful relationships, and security were accessible. But what I was shocked to discover was that I could also design such a life without relying on any of my considerable savings or investments at all. The savings and investments made it a lot easier, but they really weren’t necessary. It turns out the important part of this thought exercise was forcing myself to give up my current job. With that, I had to get rid of my own internal limiters: the unconscious need to project success to peers, the fear of giving up what I’ve already worked for in my current job, the iron clad spreadsheet and financial plan that I’ve been faithfully following for seven years, the fear of something new. When all that creativity was being pointed towards the actual life goals, as opposed to purely the financial goals that I thought would help with the life goals, a lot of shortcuts became apparent. And I couldn't have done it without having put a tremendous amount of thought into clarifying what, exactly, I want out of life. Of course, I’m not quitting my job immediately. And it’s not like my current lifestyle is too far of a cry from my goal lifestyle. It has a little less autonomy than I’d like, and a little more stress, but we’re in the ballpark. But the lesson that I think is important to remember is that financial goals are easy to measure, easy to track, and easy to let swallow you to the point of distraction. Life is not a binary between FI and failure. Extreme saving is a tool, and only a tool, and it’s worth putting thought into what you need that tool for, and not just how to get your hands on it.
RESULTS of the State of the Game Survey: September 2020
Hi all, It’s time for the results! Thank you to everyone who took the time to respond - we had over 1,750 responses, which is great! These insights wouldn’t be possible without your time and support. As always, neither myself nor this survey are associated with Intelligent Systems or Nintendo in any way. Please direct feedback about the game itself to the official channels. Now let’s get into it!
PreviousSurveyResults: April_2020_State_of_the_Game_Survey ~ Demographics ~ 53.8% began playing FE:H in February 2017, with 20.0% more joining during the first year of the game. 12.0% of respondents joined during the second year, 8.7% joined during the third, and 4.0% joined during the fourth year (the last ~7 months). The age range breakdown of respondents is as follows:
(2.6%) 12 – 15 years old
(15.0 %) 16 – 18 years old
(23.4 %) 19 – 21 years old
(21.8 %) 22 – 24 years old
(25.8 %) 25 – 30 years old
(8.2 %) 31 – 40 years old
(1.0 %) 40+ years old
75.8% of respondents identified as Male, 18.4% as Female, and 3.0% as Non-binary. 24.6% of respondents have never missed a daily login, while a further 38.8% have missed less than a month’s worth of logins, 11.7% missed 1-2 months, 9.9% missed 3-6 months, 5.8% missed 7-12 months, and 4.7% missed over a year’s worth. 33.5% report being F2P, while 28.7% have spent less than $100, 18.3% spent between $100 - $499, 7.3% spent between $500 - $999, and 8.7% have spent over $1000. 46.6% last spent money on FE:H during the fourth year of the game (the last 3 months), while 6.6% last spent money during the third year of the game, 5.8% last spent during the second year of the game, and 5.1% last spent money during the first year of the game. ~ Summoning ~ “Which of the following banners have you used orbs on at least once?”
~ Summoning Mechanics ~ 33.7% spent orbs on the Hero Fest banner AFTER Intelligent Systems announced how they would be compensating players for the Hero Fest banner glitch, compared to 61.7% who did not. 30.5% say that knowing about the compensation for the Hero Fest banner glitch caused them to spend more orbs on the banner than they would have otherwise, compared to 41.5% who say it did not. 28.0% did not spend orbs on the Hero Fest banner. 34.3% feel positively or very positively about the quality of 4* focuses on regular banners, compared to 26.9% who feel negatively or very negatively. 69.7% feel positively or very positively about the quality of 4* focuses on seasonal banners, compared to 7.8% who feel negatively or very negatively. 53.8% report that the system guaranteeing a free 5* after 40 summons generally makes them summon more, while 5.4% report that it generally makes them summon less and 36.1% report no change in their summoning habits on New Heroes banners. “If all New Heroes Banners used the permanent 40-summons-for-a-guaranteed-5* system that CYL4 used, how would your orb-spending habits on New Heroes banners change?”
(1.8%) I would spend fewer orbs than I did before
(22.3%) I would spend the same amount of orbs I usually do
(10.3%) I would spend more orbs than I did before
(62.2%) My spending would depend more on the Heroes offered
~ Choose Your Legends IV ~ “Which CYL4 Brave Heroes have you summoned, whether from the guaranteed choice banner or the regular banner?”
Of the summoning milestones on the CYL4 banner:
(20.2%) did not reach any of these summoning milestones
(79.7%) reached 40 summons
(41.0%) reached 80 summons
(19.8%) reached 120 summons
(11.1%) reached 160 summons
45.7% say that the free 5* hero at 40, 80, 120 and 160 summons caused them to spend more on CYL4 than they would have otherwise, while 50.3% say it did not. 22.8% say that the potential use of a new Brave Hero in future F2P Guides for content such as Hero Battles influenced their Brave Heroes summons, compared to 74.0% who say it did not. “If you could only get ONE of the new Brave Heroes, which one would you choose?”
“Which Brave Hero do you believe is the overall strongest?”
“Which Brave Hero do you believe is the overall weakest?”
“Which Brave Hero do you believe has the best art?”
“Which set of Brave Heroes is your favorite overall?”
23.6% feel positively or very positively about the addition of Jorge as the CYL4 GHB hero, compared to 33.0% who feel negatively or very negatively. 86.3% believe CYL5 should add further protections against vote botting, compared to 4.4% who do not. 70.1% believe CYL5 should require Nintendo Account sign-in to vote, compared to 12.6% who do not. ~ Feh Pass and Resplendent Heroes ~ 41.2% feel negatively about the addition of the Feh Pass (down 15.8% from the last survey), compared to 11.6% who feel positively (up 1.5% from the last survey). 46.1% are neutral (up 14.3% from the last survey). 40.2% have purchased the Feh Pass, compared to 59.8% who have not. This is a 9.5% increase compared to the last survey, following a 6.7% increase before that. Of those who have subscribed to Feh Pass, 17.4% have purchased Resplendent Heroes separately (up 12.9% from the last survey), compared to 82.6% who have not. “Which Resplendent Hero has your favorite art?”
“Which Resplendent outfit theme is your favorite?”
~ Miscellaneous ~ 15.8% feel positively about the introduction of Harmonized Heroes, compared to 31.3% who feel negatively. 29.5% have a Harmonized Hero, compared to 70.1% who do not. 14.6% feel positively or very positively about the Resonant Battles game mode, compared to 51.5% who feel negatively or very negatively. 4.6% say that the Resonant Battles game mode influenced them to pull for Harmonized Heroes, compared to 94.5% who say it has not. 34.8% believe the new Arena maps are better than the maps they replaced, while 7.4% believe they are worse, and 36.7% believe they are about the same. “How often do you use Auto Dispatch in Aether Raids?”
(34.3%) All of them, always
(0.2%) All of them, in Light Season
(3.6%) All of them, in Astra season
(24.3%) Only sometimes
(37.6%) I never use it
“IV Mango” is the preferred term for Trait Fruit according to 32.2% of respondents, followed by “IVcado” at 28.9%, “Fruit” at 7.6%, and “Dragonfruit” at 6.6%. The remaining 24.7% prefer to just call them Trait Fruit. 39.3% say they will use their first Trait Fruits on a Heroic Grails unit, while 32.9% say they will use them on a Summonable unit, and 1.3% say they will use them on an Askr unit. 58.7% prefer Stat Boosts for Legendary Heroes, compared to 26.3% who prefer Pair-Up. 56.5% generally prefer Regular Duo Heroes, compared to 8.8% who prefer Harmonized Duo Heroes. 1.8% say that the update that raised the minimum hardware/software required to play the game affected their ability to play FE:H, compared to 95.8% who say it did not. ~ Recurring Miscellaneous ~ “Which game do you want a New Heroes banner from the most?”
(26.0%) Three Houses (-1.9%)
(9.7%) Radiant Dawn (+0.5%)
(7.7%) Sacred Stones (+0.2%)
(7.5%) Awakening (-3.1%)
(6.4%) Genealogy of the Holy War (-1.3%)
(6.1%) Path of Radiance (-0.9%)
(6.0%) Gaiden / Shadows of Valentia (+2.7%)
(5.9%) TMS #FE (+1.9%)
(5.4%) Blazing Blade (+1.3%)
(5.0%) Fates (+1.0%)
(4.2%) Thracia 776 (+0.8%)
(2.4%) Binding Blade (+0.6%)
(0.8%) Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light / Shadow Dragon (-1.0%)
(0.8%) Mystery of the Emblem / New Mystery of the Emblem (-1.1%)
“How much do you care about your rank in the following modes?”
(2.90/5.00 average) Arena
(2.82/5.00 average) Aether Raids
(2.48/5.00 average) PvE game modes with player ranking boards
(1.82/5.00 average) Arena Assault
“How have recent changes to FE:H changed your opinion on the game as a whole?”
(39.3%) My opinion was positive and has stayed positive
(5.7%) My opinion used to be negative, but has turned positive
(9.9%) My opinion used to be positive, but has turned negative
(5.1%) My opinion was negative and has stayed negative
~ Intelligent Systems Approval Ratings ~ The approval ratings are calculated by the proportion of Approve responses compared to the number of both Approve and Disapprove responses. Percent who approve of the way Intelligent Systems is handling:
74.6% - The addition of new heroes / characters to the game (+11.9)
69.4% - The gacha mechanics and summoning banners (+5.5)
59.2% - The story/plot (+9.4)
85.2% - Unranked PvE game modes (Hero Battles, Forging Bonds, Tactics Drills, Lost Lore, Hall of Forms) (-1.2)
50.7% - Ranked PvE game modes (Voting Gauntlets, Tempest Trials, Grand Conquest, Allegiance Battles, Rokkr Sieges, Mjolnir's Strike) (-2.6)
34.6% - Arena (-6.2)
48.0% - Arena Assault (+6.7)
45.8% - Aether Raids (+12.7)
40.5% believe Intelligent Systems cares about its Free to Play userbase (up 10.1% from the last survey), while 34.7% do not. This continues the upward trend from the previous survey, bringing us to 8.8% down from where we were before the February drop). 42.9% approve of the way Intelligent Systems is handling Fire Emblem: Heroes as a whole (up 14.8% from the last survey), while 16.9% disapprove. This continues the upward trend from the previous survey, bringing us to only 2.5% down from where we were before the February drop).
A NOTE ABOUT METHODOLOGY: The overall approval ratings question above has traditionally been the exact percent of Approve responses, as a proportion with both Neutral and Disapprove responses. Note that this is different than the way approval is calculated for individual modes (the proportion of Approve responses compared to the number of both Approve and Disapprove responses), where Neutral responses are excluded. The difference in calculation has continued this way in order to maintain comparability with previous survey results. For comparisons sake, the overall approval rating trend going by raw Approval percentage over the last 4 surveys is: 50.6% (Dec) -> 22.9% (Feb) -> 28.1% (Apr) -> 42.9% (Sept) Whereas the overall approval rating trend going by proportion of Approve/Disapprove with the Neutrals excluded over the last 4 surveys is: 82.2% (Dec) -> 41.0% (Feb) -> 51.3% (Apr) -> 71.7% (Sept).
~ Bonus Questions ~ “Who is your Favorite Hero added since the last survey?”
Dimitri (Brave) is the winner, followed by Edelgard (Brave), then Claude (Brave).
“What would be the best Harmonized Hero (a pair of two heroes from different games) and why?”: Rather than selecting a subset of responses this time, the link below is to a google sheet of almost all unique responses. I cleaned it up a little bit to remove “idk” type answers, duplicates, and partial string duplicates, so don’t worry if you don’t see your exact response in it. [Full Responses]. ~ Feedback ~ As always, I received lots of great feedback, both in your survey responses and in the thread itself. A heartfelt thank you to all participants for your encouragements and criticisms - these surveys wouldn’t be where they are without your feedback. But it’s not all serious; feedback messages also included:
“There once was a CYL4 banner / That hit my orbs hard like a hammer / The very next day / FloomMom Duo came our way / Now I'm stuck bartering with a loan planner”
“bonk, go to survey jail”
“Am I also allowed to put in "Norne and Azura" for a Harmonized Hero pair? No reason.”
“Brace yourself. Winter (armours) are coming!” “Brave Hector's refine has made me so very happy with it's inclusion. Go shove your bow up your butt Legendary Chrom.”
“Give me villager alts or give me death”
“I expect the next survey to come with +12 to attack, null follow up, and special cooldown reduction.”
“The true best Harmonized Hero would be Azura and Roy since it would make me uninstall the game and never want to play a gacha ever again”
“My headcanon for the dream storyline is that the evil fairies have the Summoner off picking up pebbles that look like orbs. Fredrickson would be proud.”
“Where's the most wanted unit to add to the game question so I can shout my want for Seteth into the void?”
“I no longer dab, for Legendary Seliph has finally appeared.”
And greetings from Argentina, the Bahamas, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, the UK, Vietnam, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Toronto, and St. Louis, as well as from many fictional locations!
And some personal/meta comments:
“Any chance we end up seeing another Super Serious Survey in the not-so-distant future?” -> I could not believe it’s been over a year since the last one! We’ll have to do one soon!
“Feels like the end of an era, not having to count all my five stars” -> I know, right? I may have it return in a side survey for the most hardcore of respondents at some point, since some people are asking about it and it would be good to get data on it every once in a while.
“I was looking through your Nornes skills and saw you haven't given her live for bounty yet! It's the best skill for her, what are you doing!?” -> I am a fraud :( I have given her Live for Honor though :P
“What do you hope for in FEH?” -> Norne alt, Resplendent Jaffar, and Shamir
Multiple people mentioned that they had returned after a long break and were surprised to see Norne instead of Azura! Welcome back!
I also missed a bunch of other possible Trait Fruit nicknames, which I knew would inevitably happen. Sorry!
Note: Please don’t ask me to feature your feedback comment; it’s the only guaranteed way to not have your comment added! Finally, the suggestion to have separate options for serious vs non-serious feedback was a good idea, I’ll try that out on the next survey! ~ Closing Remarks ~ If you missed out on responding to this survey when it was available, consider subscribing to FEHSurveys. This subreddit serves as a place to organize FE:H-related surveys, make new releases more visible, and make it easier for users to see when surveys are active. Thanks again to everyone who participated! I hope you find the results interesting, and if there’s anything else you think can be discovered from the data, let me know and I’ll do my best to oblige!
The morning alarm woke up Ghen. With an annoyed sigh, he stretched out his arm and silenced the foul-sounding chirps. Slowly sitting up in bed, he let out a deep yawn and got to his feet. Running a couple of chitinous fingers along his antennae to stimulate them to life, he made his bed and then went to his closet. Today was a work day, so he needed his suit. Once the pants were on, he stretched out his wings so that he could button up the shirt, then relaxing them once all the buttons were secured. Dressing for the day was done, now for the morning meal. Entering his kitchen, he took out the chilled leftovers of the evening meal last night and popped it into the radiator, first defrosting and then slightly cooking it. During that process, he also fished out a ceramic cup and placed it in his brewer, serving himself some synthesized caffeine. His idle thought led him to being amused that, when eaten directly off a plant, it has a concentration that could kill him three times over. But after going through some refinement and roasting, all it does is make him hyper. Once the meal was put together, his plate of heated leftovers and a cup of almost-piping-hot cup of Xia's, he took his time to enjoy it. His communicator vibrated. When he looked, he found it was from his boss. "Hello?" Ghen answered. "Ghen, the meeting's been moved up to a few minutes from now." His boss, Xkik, announced. "Apparently higher up has something important they want to say. We have a terminal ready for you, I'll message the login details." "Wha-, what's so important?" Ghen asked in bewilderment. "Did a water line rupture or something?" "No, nothing like that." Xkik replied with a slight chuckle. "It's actually about the rumors we've been hearing. That human corporation wanting to acquire us? That's what they're talking about." Ghen could feel everything inside his thorax drop to the floor. "That must mean it's true then, right? Did we get sold off by the Queen to this company then?" "Show up to the meeting and you'll get your answer." Xkik said simply. When he finished, Ghen got the notification on his communicator. There's the login details, allowing him to remotely attend the meeting. "They're about to start, hurry up." Once Xkik disconnected, Ghen worked fast to login and set up the remote viewing. Once everything was done, his screen started transmitting the meeting room. It was already packed. And off by the main board, he saw his answer. There was a human, resting against the wall on his two legs. Standing right in the center of everyone's view was the coordinator, Tizx, watching the clock periodically. As soon as the meeting's start time was reached, the coordinator began. "Alright everyone. I realize that this was rather short notice, so I want to say how appreciative I am that you made it. Now then, let's just get right to it. For some time now, many of you have been hearing rumors that a human corporation has been interested in us. Why? We never really knew. We're just an organization responsible for finding, extracting and providing water to the colony here all under the direction of the Queen herself. Well, as of now, I have the answer for you. Why don't I let Ryan say that?" Stepping back, Tizx motioned for the human, Ryan, to take over. With a nod, Ryan practically bounced over and then took the position. "Good morning to you all. I hope my Zazk is passable, heh. Anyways, the answer to those rumors, is yes. Terran Galactic Company is indeed interested in you all. Which now leads to me. I'm here to announce that, effective yesterday evening, this water company is now a subsidiary of Terran Galactic Company, under the name of Zilia Water Delivery." Many other sub-coordinators broke into hushed conversation, no doubt speaking their thoughts with each other about this move. Ghen could only wonder if this was even a good thing. What will the humans do? Will he still have his job? Will he have to learn how to deal with the ruthless humans? "Now, I am well aware this is quite the...uh, change." Ryan continued. "That's why I'm happy to inform you that, no, nothing negative or detrimental will happen to you. You just have new people to answer to. Operations will continue as normal, everybody here will still keep their jobs. The only real change any of you will personally experience is that Coordinator Tizx here will now report to someone else. On behalf of the Terran Galactic Company, we are extremely excited and are looking forward to working with you all. Thank you for your time." A week later. At least Ryan wasn't lying. After the initial shock wore off, things went back as they normally did. There were no terminations, no reductions in annual pay or anything. Nothing really changed. At least until this new meeting was called. Ghen was at the worksite this time, so he took his seat and watched as, once again, Ryan led the meeting. "Hello again, everyone!" He said cheerfully, his Zazk noticeably improved. "I hope I didn't end up looking like a liar, right? Everything's still normal, all that?" All the zazk in the room confirmed, providing comments to their pleasant surprise as well as lingering thoughts. "Awesome! Awesome." Ryan said jubilantly, his fleshy mouth revealing his bone-white teeth. "Now then, you're probably wondering why I'm here again, right? Well, I got another fantastic piece of news for you all! Two, actually. I'll start with the first: Zilia Water Delivery has just completed its IPO. The company is now publicly traded!" Ghen and the others voiced their confusion, having no idea what in the name of the Queen Ryan was talking about. What was Ryan talking about? What's an IPO? And why exactly is being publicly traded such a significant thing? "Oh, you guys don't know any of that?" Ryan asked in surprised confusion. After everybody confirmed, he let out a quick huff as he began his explanation. "Well, to begin, IPO is short for Initial Public Offering. Basically what that means is that, before today, Zilia was privately held. Only certain individuals could buy and sell shares here. But now that we're public? Literally anyone can buy and sell shares in the company, hence us being publicly traded." "Uh, what's a share?" Ghen asked, still completely lost. "Oh, boy..." Ryan muttered under his breath before returning to his peppy image. "To simply put it, a share is short for having a share of ownership in a company. When you buy a share, you're buying a piece of ownership, and when you sell, you're selling that amount." "So wait...if someone buys a share, they're a co-owner then?" One of the other team coordinators asked. "If they get enough, yeah." Ryan nodded. "You need a lot though, and that really depends on the company. If I had to give an answer though? I'd say usually you need to have a lot more shares than a lot of people combined to be officially a co-owner, but we call that being a majority shareholder." "And how do we do that?" Ghen asked, now growing curious but still not understanding why such a concept exists. "Simple. Buy shares." Ryan said simply. "And that leads into the second piece of awesome news. Zilia's corporate has a product in mind, a premium-package of water delivery. Instead of the usual water that you pump out, filter and ensure its potable before delivery, with the premium package, not only will you get that, but you'll also get all of the required nutrients and vitamins the zazk body requires! And they feel you guys have the best expertise and understanding to pull it off! So, here's what we're offering as a good-faith bonus: A 25% increase to your annual salary as well as being given stock options." Ghen wasn't sure about the second part, but the salary definitely got his attention, as well as everyone else's. Although his job was considered to have a good pay, Ghen isn't going to say no to a higher salary. In fact, he's been focusing his work on getting a promotion so he can come home with even more credits in pocket. "What do you mean by stock options?" Ghen asked after some time. Ryan let out that smile again, the one that revealed his teeth. "If you choose to transfer over to the new group, you'll be provided 50,000 shares in Zilia itself. Why's that awesome? Let me walk you through it. Right now, our last closing price per share was 3.02 credits. And if you have 50,000 shares during that time, you're sitting on 151,000 credits, if you cash it out immediately." "And why shouldn't we?" One of the coordinators demanded in an ambiguous tone. "Because the price per share changes a lot." Ryan explained promptly. "When we got done with the IPO? It closed at 2.73 a share. Right now? My money's on the closing price being 2.99 a share. However, we are extremely confident in this premium package being successful. If it does? Well, my bet is that the share price will skyrocket to 3.12 a share. If you hold those shares and the price gets to what my bet was? You'll instead get 156,000 credits. Just by holding onto them, you just made an additional 5,000 credits!" "And what if we have more shares?" Ghen questioned, now getting excited at the prospect of free money. "Even more money!" Ryan laughed a bit. "And don't forget about dividends, but that's for another time. The premium group is gearing up right now, we just need the workforce. If any of you wants in, I'll be back tomorrow with all the forms needed to make it official. Take the day and tonight to think it over, yeah?" Everything else melted into a blur. Ghen was practically on autopilot that whole day. Was this the secret to the humans' incredibly massive economy? How so many of them have amassed so much money out of nowhere? All you had to do was just buy this share out of a company and you get more money without even working? As soon as he got home, Ghen knew what he was going to do during the night. After feverishly looking through the galnet, now having the human race connected to it, he looked and gathered up as many books that were translated into zazk as he could find, all talking about the human economic system. The last time he undertook such an intensive study was during his primary education phase. And during his search, he even found forums on the galnet that were completely dedicated to the human's economy. All of them talking about strategies on what company, or stock, to pick. How to analyze a company's performance to determine if it was worth the money, or it had potential to grow over time. And that was when he discovered the humans found another method to the extremely simple buying and selling process. There were humans and some other immigrated aliens who made five times what Ghen could receive over a simple month just by watching the share prices during trading hours, and then buying and selling them at the proper times. Ghen's mind was just absolutely flabbergasted. He thought it was just some strange concept only aliens could make, but no, not with the humans. They've practically made their economy into an art or a science. No, not even their economy. Everything. If humans can see a way to make money off of it, they'll do it. And if there isn't, they'll look for a way. Healthcare was monetized. Galnet services, transportation, shopping at the store, they even made all of their utilities into profit-oriented companies. And it was there that Ghen paused, the realization slamming into him. Everything was monetized. Which means, if you don't have the money for it, you're not getting it. Right? Are the humans truly that ruthless? So obsessed with making money? To the point that they're willing to deprive their own people of the absolute necessities if it's a source of credits? Ghen let out a scoff. There's no way. Nobody is that cruel and callous. He's never been to the United Nations. He can't rely on what a bunch of random people on the galnet says. He decided that from here on out, he'll only go as far as saying that humans are a little obsessed with credits, nothing more. ... There he was. Ryan, sitting in the office provided to him. And there was a rather large line leading to him. Looks like word got around. Although, the line wasn't as large as he expected it to be. Maybe the others thought it was just a ruse? That there's no such thing as making free money by spending it on such a made-up concept? Ghen only knows that, if it is a ruse, it's an extremely elaborate one, where all of the humans are in on it. And he believes that's just extremely ridiculous. At the end, if he's unsure, he'll just take the transfer for the very real increase in his very real salary. And although he spent a very good chunk of the night reading up on how humans do things, he's still going to play it smart. He'll leave his 50,000 shares alone and see where it goes from there. "Good morning sir." Ryan greeted warmly once Ghen took his seat. "Now, name please?" "Ghen." He answered, barely keeping his nerves down. "Alright...and what's your position at this location?" Ryan questioned after scribbling on his form. "I monitor the pumping stations near the extraction sites." Ghen explained, staying on point. "To be more specific, I check to see if they're in need of maintenance, as well as reading the flow rate that's determined by the calculators installed there. If there's too little for what's needed, I pump out more. And if there's too much, I pull it back a little." "Nice...and how long have you been doing it for?" Ryan complimented with a nod. "As of tomorrow, ten years." Ghen replied, voice quickly changing to minor awe once he realized that fact. "Excellent. Do you have anyone in mind you'd like to replace you here?" Ryan questioned after another scribble. "If you don't have anyone, you're free to say so." Ghen took a moment to think it over. A bunch of names went through his mind, but one stuck with him. "Tilik. He's just been accepted here, but he's learned quickly. Very attentive and he always catches something subtle. I think he'll do really well in my position, even better actually." "Tilik, really?" Ryan questioned with a little shock, going through his completed forms. Ghen felt a short sense of panic in him. Did something happen, or was Tilik actually transferring? His answer didn't take long to reveal itself. "Right, Tilik was actually one of the first people to want to transfer here. He's actually requested to be part of the testing teams specifically. Do you have a second choice?" "Um...no, actually." Ghen replied, feeling a little ashamed. "Tilik was my only choice, to be honest." "Hey, don't worry." Ryan said assuringly with his hands raised. "Nothing wrong with that. Sometimes, there's just nobody up to snuff, right? 'Kay, so, last question. Is there anything specific you'd like to do when given the transfer?" "If you need someone monitoring new pumps, I'd be happy to do that." Ghen stated. "So basically same job but with better payoff, am I right?" Ryan grinned. "I hear you. Sometimes, we're just not paid enough for what we're doing. I know I think that sometimes. Uh, our secret, yeah?" "Yeah, our secret." Ghen nodded, thinking it'd be better to have friendly relations with the human, just in case. "Awesome. Back on topic, that's it." Ryan announced, placing the form on his pile. "We'll give you a call when you're accepted." "Oh, uh, that's it?" Ghen questioned with a shrug in shocked surprise. "What, expecting a question like, why do you want to transfer?" Ryan chuckled a bit as he leaned in his seat. "You can bullshit all you want, but we both know the answer. Sweet money and stock options. Not saying that's a bad answer of course, just that it's pretty obvious." "I suppose it is." Ghen commented, realizing the point. "Also, you mentioned this...dividend? Is that for Zilia shares?" Ryan laughed a little bit before nodding. "Yep, announced before I came here. About 0.43 per share. Want to know why that's awesome? Instead of waiting for the proper price to cash out your shares, now? The company pays you for each share you hold." "A...Are you serious?" Ghen demanded, flabbergasted. Ryan nodded with his now-trademark grin. "Dead serious. If you get the transfer, and get those 50,000 shares? A little head math...right, if you hold onto those, in addition to your salary, you'll now annually be paid 21,500 credits, if you keep it at 50,000 shares. Only you can decide to sell or buy shares." Ghen just stood there silent and motionless, no idea of whether to believe it or not, to which Ryan just laughed. Once he walked out of the room, he managed to snap back to reality. Again, just focus on the very real pay-raise. He'll deal with the other parts later. After he returned to his spot, he spotted Tizx approaching by his desk. The coordinator seems to be as casual as always. "I saw you in that line a bit ago, Ghen." He said as he leaned on the desk. "Guess you're really taking that human's word?" "I mean, I don't know about all this share business or what not." Ghen began with a shrug, his tone sounding a little defensive. "But I mean, having a bigger salary? Course I'm going for it when I can. And if all this magic credits turn out to be real? You realize we can live like the royal servants, right? Get the best cars, the nicest food and all that?" "I'd be very careful, Ghen." Tizx warned in a sudden shift in tone. "Don't trust those humans. The way they just...obsess over money? Come up with more and more insane ways of getting credits? I don't know, it just makes my wings twitch." "You think this is a bad idea?" Ghen asked with a little surprise at the change-in-demeanor. "I think you should be careful, with the humans, and with what you're saying." Tizx replied, straightening his posture. "I wouldn't put it past those Earthmen to backstab you if it gets them a few more credits. And we all know how the royal servants get if any of us lowly commoners start thinking we can break into their circle." "I hear you, I'll be on my guard, promise." Ghen stated with a nod. With a confirming nod of his own, Tizx returned back to his duty, walking past Ghen's desk. Several weeks later. Everything became so much better. Ghen got the transfer. He didn't need to relocate to a new residence either. And after he was walked through into learning how to manage his stock account, and seeing that new form of payment in his hands, he already felt as though he made the best decision. But it was only when he decided to take those shares more seriously that he became privy to what he was given. After receiving the dividend payment, and actually seeing it was real, valid credits after transferring it to his main bank account, all he could describe was the most powerful high he ever felt. While his first thoughts were to buy himself a royalty-class car, some nicer furnishings for his home, or even a better home entirely, he ended up going the smarter route. After going back to his stock account, he discovered that Zilia's shares rose to about 3.22 credits in price. Knowing that this was the easiest money he could ever make, he took all of his dividend earnings and bought more shares in Zilia, bringing him to owning 56,891. And from his new regional coordinator, a human named Dylan, tomorrow is the grand release of the premium package. For just a monthly rate of 14.99 credits, the tap water will now include a sizeable portion of all nutrients and vitamins required in the zazk physiology. Still, Ghen has to admit. He's not entirely sure why anybody would want such a thing, if they'd even go for it. But, as long as he's practically swimming in easy credits, he won't pay much attention to it. And just like when he was intensively studying the basics of how the human economy worked, he barely got any sleep. His mind was constantly thinking about the things he would buy. Or rather, what other stocks to put his credits into. Even now he can still hardly believe it. Just spend your money on some, make-believe thing and, if you wait long enough and picked the right stock, you'll get more than you spent back? His mind even wandered onto what human colonies, or even their homeworld, Earth, was like. If everybody was making so much money, what kind of things would they offer? What kind of ridiculous service or product or item can you get? He's even debating on joining some forum and just asking around. Explain how he's new to how humans do things and was wondering what he should expect if he's successful. By the time he felt like he can go to sleep, the binary-stars of the system were rising from the horizon. After getting out of his bed and changing to clean clothes, his mind returned onto what-ifs. What if he bought better clothes? He's had his eye on that human brand of luxury clothes, Tessuti di Venezia, that's been all the rage amongst the royal servants. Or maybe he can go on vacation and just check out Earth for real? It was a short ride to his workplace from his home. After getting stuff his stuff and preparing to walk through the doors, he heard the roar of a car grow louder. When he looked, he saw the sleekest and quite possibly the coolest looking car he's ever seen. Each time the engine revved it would startle him, both from how harsh it sounded as well as just how intense it sounded. And after it parked, he saw the doors pop out and then slide along the body back. And there, he saw Tilik, the seat literally turning and extending out a bit before he got off. As soon as he saw Ghen staring, he struck a rather prideful pose after putting on his lab coat and then sauntered over to Ghen. "What do you think?" Tilik said, without any doubt inviting praise or compliments. "D...Did you actually buy that?" Ghen asked, unable to tear his eyes away from the car. "You're Queens-damn right I did!" Tilik laughed happily. "Thing takes off like a starship, has temperature-controlled seating, all-in-one center console, barely any bouncing on rough roads. Hoof, best decision I've ever made!" "How much did that thing cost?" Ghen asked after letting out an incredulous laugh. "Five million credits." Tilik replied, earning an absolutely shocked stare from Ghen. "And thanks to the incredible salary I have, in addition to all these shares and dividends, I'll pay back the credits I borrowed in no time!" Ghen needed a few moments before he could speak again. "All I've been doing is buying more shares." Tilik laughed and then patted the now-envious monitor's back. "Smart man. I got a little carried away, yeah, but not anymore. Any spending credits I got, going right back to investing. That's what it's called right, investing?" "Yeah, it is." Ghen nodded, feeling a fire light up in his thorax. "And also? Today's the day that the premium water thing is being released. Here's hoping it starts out well, right?" "Oh it will, trust me." Tilik chuckled as they both began making their way inside the workplace. "Lots of research, lots of study. By the Queen, so much of it...it'll make your head spin." And after hearing that, Ghen had a moment of realization. "Hey, Tilik? How did you get such a nice position anyways? Weren't you just studying under me before the humans came along?" Tilik let out a sigh after opening the door. "I'll be honest, I never wanted your job. Not because it's boring or terrible, just...I didn't suffer so many sleepless nights in the science academy just to be a glorified button pusher. This is what I've always wanted. Doing science, solving problems rather than just applying the solution, you know?" "Wait, you got an academic certificate?" Ghen questioned, completely floored. "How did you end up beneath me then? I should've been answering to you!" "Simple." Tilik gave a heavier sigh. "A royal servant was asking for the same job I was. Take a guess at who got it." "Ouch. Good thing the humans came along when they did, yeah?" Ghen was taken aback. He never heard anything about a servant taking a job at his place. "Looks like you're proving yourself to be well suited." "By the Queen, of course I am." Tilik nodded. "Like I said, I nearly broke my wings through so many nights, got certified top of my class, all just to get pushed to the dirt because someone who was born into a particular family wanted the same thing I did? I know I'm smarter than any of those empty-skull servants back in the Center. I know that, whatever, uh...corporate? Yeah, whatever corporate wants out of science, I will xeek give it to them." "Well, let me know how things go in the lab." Ghen said, admiring his drive as they neared the main office floor. "Because this is where the button pusher needs to go." Tilik let out a laugh as he nodded. "Hey, how about we meet up at Queen's Fine Eatery tonight. I'll pay, yeah?" Ghen, at first, wanted to admonish him for choosing such an outrageously expensive place to go. But he quickly realized that, he truly is good for it, thanks to the humans. "Well, hey, if you're paying for it." ... It was a fantastic opening. After being told what news sites to keep in mind for stocks, he first heard it from Dylan, and then got more detail on Business Today. There was such a massive demand right from the start that Zilia needs to increase extraction just to meet it. But what really got his attention was the effect it had. Zilia Water Delivery's share price just blasted off. After seemingly holding steady at about 3.15, by the time he got home and logged onto his account, it already reached 7.04 a share. The calculator on his account told him that he got a value-gain of 54.26%. Never in his entire life had he felt such...joy. With all of the shares he currently has? He's sitting at 400,512.64 credits. He knows that it is woefully pathetic compared to what the royal servants have just in their pockets, but the fact that he has such money, just by owning some intangible concept? Why even work at Zilia? Why doesn't he just sit at home, figure out what companies to invest in and make his money that way? What's even the point in working a real job, getting a pathetic pay when you can just take the money you have, determine where to spend it, and get triple back? All just sitting on your wings at home, researching? He was so wrapped up in his excited high that he completely forgot he was going to meet Tilik at Queen's. After quickly and haphazardly putting on his nicer clothes, he got to the place only a few minutes late. Tilik was there by the guide, no doubt having been waiting for him. As soon as he strode up, Tilik's wings stiffned out some. No doubt he must've seen the numbers as well. "I can see your wings, Ghen." Tilik began with an excited chuckle. "Made some serious credits?" Ghen let out an incredulous scoff, struggling to find the words for a moment. "Incredible. All I'm going to say." "Likewise." Tilik chortled some before nodding to the table guide. "All here. Table please?" "Right this way, sir." The guide said politely. It was a short walk, travelling between round tables. The vast majority were populated by zazk, but Ghen was surprised at seeing a few humans here as well. No doubt corporate workers checking out the local food. He did spot them having bowls filled with some kind of mass. Some were brown, others white with what looks to be black specks on them. They arrived at their table. A rather nice one, affording a view out the windows into the busy colony streets. Once Tilik and Ghen settled in, the guide handed out the menus. "May I suggest our rather popular option for tonight?" The guide began. "Human ice-cream. Ingredients sourced from Earth itself. Very cold, but incredibly sweet, and coming in many flavors. The most popular amongst us is called vanilla-bean. The vanilla itself soaks in the cream for much of the process, and then the innards sprinkled on top of it near the end. Rumor has it that the Queen herself has demanded personal shipments of such a treat straight from the home of vanilla, an island on Earth named Madagascar." Ghen didn't even spare a single thought. "Vanilla bean ice cream then, please." "Same." Tilik seconded when the guide glanced to him. With a slight bow, the guide proceeded to ferry their orders to the kitchen. Thankfully it was just a short wait before the guide returned, carrying a large plate containing bowls of ice cream. Ghen could feel the saliva on his mandibles as the bowl was placed before them. He could just feel the cold air around that glistening mass of sugary goodness. The white snow decorated with the black dots of vanilla bean. Once the guide left them, Tilik and Ghen both dived in at the same time. As soon as the ice cream entered his mouth, touched his tongue, he exploded in incomprehensible bliss. The sweetness, the smooth and creamy mass, even the taste of vanilla he wasn't sure about was just absolutely delightful. It was so overwhelming that his entire body limped, slumping in his seat as he was forced to ride on the surging tide of joy and happiness sweeping over him. Tilik was no different. He too was taken completely by the effects of the ice cream, his wings fluttering some against the seat. Ghen could hear some noise. It was the humans they passed by. They were chuckling, grinning, and glancing over at them discreetly. Unlike the two zazk, the humans seemingly just enjoyed the ice cream as if it was just another nice dessert to them. Or perhaps they couldn't allow themselves to succumb to the high? And as soon as the wave of indescribable bliss and happiness subsided, Ghen knew. He just knew. This was the life. He wanted this. The ice cream was just the beginning. So many things denied because he didn't have the credits, or worse, not the blood. Because he was just a drone in the great Collective, even if he had the credits, he wasn't allowed because of what caste he was born in. That fire that sparked in him when he saw Tilik's new car? It exploded into a raging firestorm. And when looking into Tilik's eyes, Ghen could see the same. He was on the same page as Ghen was. Both of them were sold. They have the credits. And the humans? If you can pay for it, they'll never discriminate. All they cared about is if you have the money. And by the Queen, Ghen and Tilik will endeavor to amass as much credits as physically possible. The rest of the night faded into a blur. A blur that evokes only one thing. Bliss. It was only when he walked through the door of his pathetic hut that Ghen's mind snapped back to focus. His mandibles felt sticky. And he felt a weight in his stomach. How much ice cream did he eat? Whatever it was, he ate such volume that the lower-section of his throax extended and rounded out, visible even under his shirt. He felt something odd in his pocket. It was a receipt. 43,000 credits for ten bowls of vanilla bean ice cream. Was that ten bowls for both of them? Or individually? Ghen didn't care. He's good for it. Returning back to his calculator, he acted upon the decision that he had made at that eatery. He's acquiring as many books about investing and stock trading as he could find, frequent and study all the discussions and arguments presented by other like-minded individuals such as he, all to ensure he can live the good life. And he had a very good feeling Tilik was doing the exact same thing. Well, first, the gurgling in his stomach, as well as the feeling of something rising demanded his attention. Looks like he'll need to take the night off to let his stomach get back to normal. Three Years Later. Ghen looked out beyond the horizon, seeing the colony that he grew up in. On the far side was where his old house was. With only a simple robe on, made from the finest silk from Earth's nation-state of China, he relaxed in his seat. It was a long road. Stockpiling credits from pre-existing investments and from subsequent pays, he and Tilik made it. From having only half a million in assets and cash, now transformed to over eight-hundred million. And now, his call contracts on American Interstellar? They've just announced a breakthrough in their next generation of warp drives, reducing the speed coefficient even further, resulting in far faster travel. And with that, their stock price climbed sharply. Another hundred million credits in the bank. Soon, very soon, he and Tilik are about to become the galaxy's first zazk billionares. But that's not enough. There are many humans who are billionares. Only those he can count on one hand are considered trillionares. He's going to break into that circle. He and Tilik. Looking beyond the colony, he saw the abandoned building of the workplace he transferred to when the humans arrived. Turns out, the reason for such a high demand was that the humans also slipped in sugar to the tap water. As soon as that broke, many influential royal servants demanded investigations and outright banning of Terran Galactic Company's influence over the former government division. Zilia's stock price plummeted. But thanks to an advance tip from his human coordinator, Dylan, he and Tilik made a put contract. And that's where they struck gold, as the human saying goes. Dylan warned that if they were citizens of the United Nations, they'd be investigated and convicted for insider trading. But, since they weren't, and the Collective were only just introduced to capitalism, there's no risk at all. Now the colony is going through a withdrawal phase, Zilia has been dissolved and reformed back as a government division and are currently at work re-establishing the standard, plain water delivery. "Well, shit." Tilik muttered as he walked up to Ghen's side, taking well to human speech. "Looks like you win. American Interstellar's announcement really was a good thing. There goes a million credits. Ah well, the Royal Shipyards will make it back for me soon." "Oh? Did they just go corporate?" Ghen asked curiously, glancing to Tilik. "Hell yeah they did." Tilik chuckled, sitting down. "Queen and her retard servants fought it hard, but Royal Shipyards is now officially a human-style corporation. And, to a surprise to all the xenophobes in the galaxy, they're already being offered contracts for ship production. That'll raise the stock price pretty good." "What's that human word...?" Ghen muttered, already having a reply in mind. "Dick? Yeah, calls or suck my dick, Tilik." Tilik roared in laughter. "Already made them. Forty credits a share by this day next month." "I have half a mind to go thirty." Ghen chuckled. "Either way, until then, I heard from Dylan that he knows a guy who knows several prime human women who happen to be into zazk." "You're interested in women?" Tilik said as his wings fluttered. "With how often you tell me to suck you off, I'd have thought differently." "Oh, I always thought it was you who was into men." Ghen responded dryly. "Just wanted to be a good friend, you know? Considering how you never seem to make it past, Hey sweet thing, I'm rich you know." "Oh, go fuck yourself." Tilik countered with a little laugh. After he stopped, wings stiffened, he looked to Ghen. "So, know any royal servants we can put the squeeze on for more revenue streams?" "I got just the one." Ghen nodded, sitting up. "Fzik. He's been fighting to control the ice cream trade. Worried it's a corrupting influence. Got done talking with the human CEO of Nestle earlier. If we clear the way, he'll know how to squeeze a little more gains in stock price when he makes the announcement." Tilik's wings stiffened even more, signaling his approval. "Alright, time to throw some credits around, yeah?" AN: Sorry for the period of no updates. College is starting up, lots of stuff to clear and work out. Not sure why but I just got a bug up my butt about incorporating money and the stock market into a short. Here it is. Sorry if it seems abrupt, character limit fast approaching. Let me know how you guys think about it!
Previously on the Cryptic Zombonium *** A priest, a wolf, and a german walks into a bar. One of them is an atheist, the other an agnostic, and the priest says he has the cure for the Zombie Virus, but only if you believe in God Almighty. “What do you mean, you have the cure?” I spat blasphemously. “And what do you mean we have to have faith?” the German joined in. “Is he the leader now?” Travis asked Hannah. “He said he was the leader now.” The Vatican Archivist, Father Connor, the priest, the holy trinity of cool nicknames, put a finger to his mouth, like he was hushing a bunch of toddlers. “That’s not what I meant,” he said softly. “I simply stated that the Virus comes from the heavenly archives of the Vatican, and that it is in fact not a Virus.” “What in the god-forsaken shit fucking hell is it then?” I asked politely. “Language?” Hannah suggested. “He is a priest and all.” I nodded thoughtfully. “Sorry, Father. Didn’t mean to say ‘hell’.” “Sit, children,” the Archivist sang weirdly. “And all shall be explained.” We didn’t have anywhere to sit, so most of us just shuffled around awkwardly as he told us in great detail about his incredibly complex backstory, for some reason starting at his birth. The real juicy parts came right near the end though, so I’ll be skipping to that part. Apparently the Zombie Virus wasn’t a Zombie Virus at all. It was Demon Virus. Yes, you heard me. According to the Father, the Vatican collects samples of demon blood (or fluids as he would have it, but let’s just go with blood), and stuffs them in boxes all the way down there in the catacombs. “So how did it end up here?” Kat asked. “We shipped a vial of the foul blasphemous fluid overseas by mistake,” Father Connor replied. “Blood,” I coughed. “Let’s call it blood. And what in god’s name in vain did you mean to send?” “Holy Water, of course,” he said. “The quality stuff has to be blessed by the Pope himself. We keep it on the shelf next to the demon fluid.” “Blood,” I coughed again. “As we all know, some people are more blessed than others,” Father Connor continued. “That’s because they were blessed by the Pope himself. Costs a pretty penny though, mind you.” “So some rich asshole paid for super-blessed holy water, only to receive demon blood instead?” “Yes,” the Father nodded solemnly. “But as it turns out, it wasn’t just any old demon fluid.” “Don’t fucking tell me,” I said. “It was the bodily fluid of the Antichrist himself,” the Father murmured, crossing himself feverishly. “Or herself,” Eileen Dover chimed in. “Who’s to say the Antichrist isn’t a she?” “Or themselves,” Hannah said. “Could be non-binary too.” “All realistic options,” I agreed. “But what’s the big deal? Is it contagious or something?” “That’s exactly it,” Father Connor said. “The Vessel of the Antichrist now spreads unlife wherever it journeys, and the Afflicted then spreads it even further. The only way to stop it, is by destroying it.” “And this Vessel would be?” Travis inquired. “A five year old girl,” Father Connor replied. “By the name of Kreszentia.” “And by destroying it you mean...” the German said. “Killing her, yes,” Father Connor nodded. “Humanely, of course. We have to crucify her.” There was quite a bit of uproar at this statement, and deservedly so. Killing a five year old girl? Antichrist or no Antichrist, you just don’t go around murdering children willy-nillily. The group split up into smaller cliques, all of us trying to make sense of the situation. Could we trust the Father? Was he really an Archivist? Did he have some credentials to that effect possibly? Like a badge or something? And how much did the Vatican charge for super-blessed holy water? “CHEESE,” Max suddenly yelled. “WE SHOULD GO GET THE CHEESE.” “I’m sorry,” Kat said. “I thought we’d given up on that plan?” Grant stepped forward. “We did,” he said. “On account of all them zombies.” “I KNOW A SECRET STASH,” Max shuffled around excitedly. “NO ZOMBIES THERE PROBABLY.” “Probably?” I said. “How probably are we talking?” “LIKE MAYBE THREE,” he replied weirdly. “THREE PROBABLY’S.” “I like those odds,” Travis said. “We desperately need the food,” Hanna sighed. “If we’re gonna keep adding more wackjobs to our group, we’re gonna have to find a way to feed them.” “Alright,” I stepped forward. “As the leader of this group, I say we give it another go. Eileen, Hannah, Travis, the German; you’re with me. Max, get busy drawing us a map or something.” “SHOULDN’T I COME WITH?” Max asked. “Are you kidding me?” I exclaimed. “The Z-boiz (trademark filed) will be on us the moment you open your mouth.” “FAIR POINT,” he nodded loudly. “Who made him leader of the group?” Eileen Dover asked. “He did it himself,” Travis said. “Last episode.” *** We sped down the bumpy roads moments later with Hannah behind the wheel. Max had drawn us a fairly crude map with some bizarre notes, but having staked out the factory for weeks, I had the place memorized like someone had carved it right into my brain with tiny sharp needles. “Are you guys buying the priest’s bullshit?” I asked. “Demon blood? The Antichrist?.” “Demon fluid,” Travis corrected. “I don’t know,” Hannah said. “And I don’t care. I’m here for the cheese.” Eileen Dover nodded. “Demons, Zombies, Antichrists, they’re all baddies in my book.” I shrugged. “And you, the German?” “Please, just call me German, no need to be so formal about it.” We pulled off the main road, and slowed down as we approached the harrowing brutalist structure of the cheese factory. The sun was in descent, and we had to be quick about it if we were to pull off the heist before nightfall. “Strange,” the German said. “What is?” I asked. “I don’t see any walkers around,” he said. “Uh, I mean zombies.” He was right. “He is right,” I said. The place looked deserted. Not only human deserted, but the other kind too. Dead deserted. With all the deafening noise we served up last time we were here, there should at least be a horde or two shambling about. Eileen Dover pointed ahead. “The gates,” she said. “They’re open. Were they open before?” I shook my head. “They were not.” Hannah parked the car, and we all slipped out stealthily, slowly making our way to the main gates. The place was eerily silent, and you could hear a squirrel’s neck snapping from a mile away. We entered the factory, and we all stumbled back in shock at the sight that unfolded. Well except me, of course. I don’t do shock. “What the fuck?” I said, stumbling back in shock. “There is no cheese,” Travis mumbled. “There should be cheese, right?” “I’m more concerned about the insurmountable mountain of zombie corpses,” the German noted. It was huge. Three-four hordes worth of re-deaded dead, stacked so high that they almost reached the factory ceiling some twenty feet up. Travis nodded. “That too,” he said. “Look,” Eileen Dover said, pointing at one of the mangled zombies on the floor. “Look at the forehead.” Hannah bent down, inspecting the thing with some interest. Carved deep into the rotting flesh was the letter “M”. “They all have it,” I said, dragging limp bodies down from the massive pile. “They’re all marked.” “What does it mean?” the German mumbled. “Who the hell did this?” “No time for wacky theories,” I said. “Although it was obviously done by a crazed gang of nutjobs as an insanely laborious way to send us a deeply unsettling message. They’re probably watching us right now.” “What?” Travis exclaimed. “I don’t like being watched.” “No matter,” Hannah said. “We’re obviously too late. There’s not a single cheese crumb left in this place.” “Don’t be so sure,” Eileen Dover said, reaching into her sweater. “These guys beg to differ.” She produced from the depths of her baggy clothing two lively rats, and held them out for us all to see. “This is Microwave,” she shoved a rat in my face, “and this is Tea.” “We sometimes call her Rat Girl,” Travis whispered to me. “You know, because she’s got rats, and she’s a girl.” “What?” I said sourly. “If she’s Rat Girl, why can’t I be the Wolf then?” “Do you own a Wolf?” Hannah asked. “No, but-” I started. “There’s your answer then,” she said. “OK, bring us the map, and we’ll let the rats sniff around.” We started moving from room to room, trying to decipher the rather cryptic messages Max had scribbled down. After about thirty minutes of not getting anywhere, Travis came running out from one of the offices, waving the map around. “I found it!” he yelled excitedly. “I think I found the stash.” “Are you sure?” I asked. “How can you be sure?” “Look, look,” he pointed to the map. “See, right next to the big X, he wrote ‘nursery rhyme profanity’.” “And?” “There’s a bookshelf in that office,” he said. “And one of the books are ‘FUCK LICKETYSPLIT’.” I shrugged. “I don’t see the connection.” “In my hometown we had this old nursery rhyme called LICKETYSPLIT, and I always had a feeling the verses were hiding something.” “Well, it’s all we got,” Hannah said. “Rat Girl, we need Microwave and Tea.” Rat Girl scurried into the office, and gently placed the rats next to the bookshelf. We watched in weird silence as Microwave and Tea sniffed around the big old thing, until they both eventually disappeared behind it. “Cheese,” Rat Girl grinned. “There’s cheese behind that shelf, I guarantee it.” We all stared at each other for half a second, before snapping into action, tearing the bookshelf apart piece by piece. It took us a minute or two, but at the end we heard Rat Girl giggling gleefully as Microwave and Tea scurried back into her sweater. “Cheese,” I said, wiping sweat from my forehead. “We’ve got cheese.” The room wasn’t large, but it was stuffed to the brim with wonderful cheese. Brie. Camembert. Mozzarella. Other foreign names. “Won’t last us years,” Hannah said. “But it’ll do for a month or two.” We quickly cleaned out the room, backpacks soon filled with the dairy gold. Without pausing, we made our retreat, the sun now all but disappeared behind the horizon. I convinced the German to carry my backpack, since I was lactose intolerant. “You can’t eat cheese?” he asked. “Why so eager to loot this place then?” “Oh no, I can eat it,” I said. “I just can’t have it anywhere near my skin,” I lied. We approached our car a few minutes later, but Hannah, who was leading the way, suddenly stopped dead in her tracks, and signalled for us to shut the fuck up. “What is it?” I whispered. Hannah took a few cautious steps toward the car. “Not sure,” she said. “I think I hear something.” We all stopped moving, and stood there perfectly still. And sure enough, I heard it too. A soft wheezing, a pained gargling. The sound of the dead. Hannah waved us closer, and we all tippy-toed the rest of the way, soon spotting the parked car right where we left it. But there was something else too. Something strapped to the hood. “Fuck me,” I said. “These guys are all about the games, aren’t they?” The bloody zombie, once a middle-aged man by the looks of it, was missing it’s hands and feet; nothing now but an undead head on an undead torso. A chain held the thing in place, and carved deep into its forehead was that ever-ominous “M”. “That’s horrible,” Travis mumbled. “But not horror,” the German noted. “A short scary story if I ever saw one,” I said. Hannah and Rat Girl had already started unchaining it, while we were busy pointing out the different gruesome aspects of the deed. Without saying anything, they both simultaneously took a step back, eyes wide with what I can only imagine was fear. “What?” I inquired. “What’s wrong.” The zombie squirmed disgustingly, crimson blood smearing the hood of the car like some kind of messed up art piece. Then it opened its hideous mouth and wheezed discordantly. “Please,” it gargled. “Please kill me.” [TO BE CONTINUED]
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.
Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)
Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans. Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February. In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday. Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels. “The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.” Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19. Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen. Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved. “I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding. “What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”
It’s the economy
Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31. President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000. “I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.” Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies. “We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis. He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September. The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments. “The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said. Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay. “The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever. From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”
When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch
US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point. Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.
100 Days of Gains
Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high. While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!) Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
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Walmart Inc. $132.60
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.
Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.
Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.
A very long, very indepth attempt at analizing Teemo
Warning, this is extremely long. Like 12 pages on a google doc long. You have been warned.
So there has been a lot of discussion about Teemo recently, from what his iconic skills are(all of them), to what items he can build(all of them), to what position he can be played in(... all of them), and it’s kinda went nowhere fast as Teemo, and by extension his player base, is just too flexible to be defined in any of these ways. So what actually makes Teemo unique? His playstyle. Teemo is an old style of champion. I'm not talking about his art, or his kit(though both of these are technically also true), I'm talking about how Teemo’s goal isn’t to all in and combo his opponent down on their first mistake and snowball from there, but rather to create a lead from dozens of small victories. Your goal isn’t necessarily kill your opponent (though that’s always good) but to force them back, causing them to miss cs and xp repeatedly, or waste their time smashing blindly into a bush. And later in the game, while, again, killing people is now the goal, forcing them to have to back after tripping a few shrooms, or leading them on a fruitless chase through the jungle after splitpushing are just as useful to Teemo. If I had to describe Teemo's playstyle, it would be
Attritional, Rapid Force, Psycologically Manipulative, War Mastermind of Breakdown
I'm only half joking, as even though this is from a Spongebob theory video on Plankton, it actually describes Teemo to some degree. As The Theorizer(the guy who made the video Im referencing) put it:
Attritional, someone who engages in attrition warfare. Rapid force, very fast, very hard attacks. Psychologically manipulative, basically, very good at trickery and getting people to do what you want. War mastermind, well duh, someone who is good with war. Breakdown, to break something down.
Only instead of getting a burger recipe, we are getting our enemies to tilt. But with every new release Teemo has gotten more and more outclassed, as his opponents get more and more mobility that a small 10-52% movespeed boost can’t escape from. We all recognize that Teemo needs a rework, a Morgana/Ezreal level rework that modernizes Teemo’s kit without changing its functionality that much, but a rework nonetheless. Last year u/RiotJag attempted to do a mini rework on Teemo, starting with this:
Base Mana Regen increased from 1.92 to 2.5 Mana Regen per level increased from 0.09 to 0.15 Mana/lvl up increased from 20 to 25 Toxic Shot (Passive) Teemo’s basic attacks now deal 10-50 bonus magic damage and leave a Poison DoT that deals 24-192 magic damage over 4 seconds. Toxic Shot damage (both the on-hit and the DoT) is amped by 50% whenever there are other Poison debuffs on the target Blinding Dart (Q) Base damage lowered from 80/125/170/215/260 to 80/115/150/185/220 AP Ratio lowered from 0.8 to 0.6 Now is a Poison Debuff Move Quick (W) No longer breaks stealth Guerilla Warfare (E) [New Active] After a 1 second delay, Teemo enters Camouflage for 3-5 seconds. Teemo is slowed by 25/22.5/20/17.5/15% during this effect, and gains 20/30/40/50/60% Attack Speed for 3 seconds when it ends. Camouflage does not tick down while Teemo is in a brush or is standing still. Noxious Trap (R) Base Damage lowered from 200/325/450 to 150/250/350 AP ratio lowered from 0.5 to 0.4 Mushrooms health increased from from [6 at all ranks] to [6/8/10] Mushroom max ammo count up from [3 at all ranks] to [3/4/5]
And then after a few iterations it ended up like this
Base Mana Regen increased from 1.92 to 2.5 Mana Regen per level increased from 0.09 to 0.15 Mana/lvl up increased from 20 to 25 Base damage lowered from 54 to 51 Attack speed per level lowered from 3.38 to 2 Toxic Shot (Passive) Teemo’s basic attacks now deal 8-50 bonus magic damage and leave a Poison DoT that deals 24-180 magic damage over 4 seconds. Toxic Shot damage (both the on-hit and the DoT) is amped by 50% whenever there are other Poison debuffs on the target Blinding Dart (Q) Base damage lowered from 80/125/170/215/260 to 70/105/140/175/210 mana cost increased from 70/75/80/85/90 to 80/85/90/95/100 AP Ratio lowered from 0.8 to 0.6 Now is a Poison Debuff Move Quick (W) No longer breaks stealth Guerilla Warfare (E) Cooldown: 40/37/34/31/28
[New] "After a 1 second delay, Teemo becomes Invisible indefinitely if standing still or in brush, and can move up to 7/7.5/8/8.5/9 Teemos while out of brush, but any non-periodic damage from champions will break him out. Teemo can see 25% farther while stealthed. Upon breaking Guerilla Warfare, Teemo gains 20/30/40/50/60% Attack Speed for 3 seconds. While on cooldown, standing in brush will tick down guerilla Warfare's cooldown faster." Stealth duration while moving: 2/2.25/2.5/2.75/3 >Noxious Trap (R) Base Damage lowered from 200/325/450 to 150/250/350 AP ratio lowered from 0.5 to 0.4 Mushroom max ammo count up from [3 at all ranks] to [3/4/5] Traps now become invisible after 1 second Traps can continue to bounce on other traps Additionally there were these prospective changes that were scrapped due to the community’s disinterest in the rework direction.
"Most recent version in testing was pretty E focused as follows (differences all versus previous prototype version, not versus live Teemo): - No longer granted extra sight range - CD didn't tick down faster in brush - Distance while invisible up a bit - CD lower - Standing in brush slowly replenished distance Teemo could move while invisible Haven't heard how playtesting with that went though. Expect this will likely continue as a slow burn project rather than something that gets released or killed quickly, especially given it's the secondary priority of the designer working on it."
After it was scrapped we got the quality of life buffs that we have now. But lets discuss the rework. I honestly thing that the _concept_ is the best shot at reworking Teemo. The numbers and exact implementation are debatable, but switching e and passive is a great idea as, after the shrooms, Teemo’s on hit poision is his most iconic ability. Not to mention it freed Teemo up to be able to max his abilities depending on what he needed for his matchup, rather than e max always, and then either q or w depending on choice. The things people didn’t like about it though were:
The shrooms being nerfed damage wise.
I understand this one, Doomshroom Teemo is my favorite build, but his shrooms are problematic in their current state as they take up a large amount of Teemo's power budget, but also can amount to nothing as the enemy gets 5 sweepers and clears all of them. Not to mention how they synergize so well with Liandrie’s that its a core item for Teemo, despite the fact that his q, the only other ability that can proc it, does not utilize it all that well due to being a medium cooldown, single target spell that can only proc it once. And this is going to be a problem, as in the item update Liandries will be a mythic item, and Teemo builds Liandries [77.5% of the time!](https://www.leagueofgraphs.com/champions/items/teemo) To put this into perspective, Nashors tooth is only bought 61.5% of the time. An item that gives Teemo every stat he wants regardless of build(ignoring Tankmo) and reinforces Teemo's main damage outlet(basically increases e's on-hit damage by 150-30% depending on e rank, and the on-hit scaling from .3 to .45 AP), is bought 16.5% less often than an item that only synergizes with one skill. If this continues after the update, which it likely will as Liandries increases Shroom damage by 20-200%(depending on when it's bought, the target hit, and other items bought. The 200% would be lvl 1 ult, no other ap, and an 1000 health target with 50 mr) and its being _buffed_ via the mythic item stat bonus, that will be above the threshold that will cause Teemo to be changed due to [hardbinding](https://na.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/news/dev/dev-updated-approach-to-item-balancing/). Unless Zyra and Brand also buy it at the same rates after the update(as that would trigger the “nerf item” option), but unlike Teemo the item actually synergizes with their entire kit(plants and blaze, which utilize every ability) rather than just one ability.
It didn’t improve the w
This was a major hole in the rework, as while switching e and p is great, it wouldn’t be awful if they stayed the same. Meanwhile Teemo’s w is supposed to put the “swift” in his title of Swift Scout, and it does so… barely. Exactly what should happen with it is, as always, up to debate, but it needs changing to be on par with current LoL as the current w is supposed to help Teemo kite, yet even if you dodge everything thrown at you it can get disabled by a ludens proc hitting an ally.
The camo stealth makes him a worse Twitch.
This is half true. The first one, yes absolutely. But it didn’t stay as a camouflage ability. Sure, both are marksmen that can go invisible, but Twitch’s is for long distances and to keep him safe while he positions to obliterate the enemy team from 800 range, while Teemo’s is restricted range wise, and is more useful to dodge enemy's notice or wait for them to come to you rather than you going to them. At that point, they only share the fact that they both come out of stealth to surprise people(and a DOT, if 30 damage after 6 attacks at lvl 18 deserves to be called one), which every camoflage user does And my own complaint about both proposed rework and live Teemo:
His kit has limited synergy.
Each part of Teemo's kit doesn't help the other parts very much. Over the years Teemo players have worked the separate parts of his kit into a cohesive playstyle, but each part of his kit just does it's own thing. Like for instance, in theory his blind should support keeping his w up, but in reality every champ, even Udyr, has a non auto attack way of hitting Teemo(Udyr typically has smite and he always can rush up to you with Bear and activate Phoenix stance), and many have attacks that are undodgable(unless you count not being in range to be targeted as dodging it, which for many champs is just being outside Teemo's attack range). So, where should we go from here?
Well, we should discuss the purpose of his abilities.
If every part of his kit is iconic, and replacing them completely would change Teemo in a way that the playerbase wouldn’t like, then we should decide what role each of his abilities plays in his playstyle, and how they could be changed to better fit them.
This is the base of Teemo’s kit. Doing DOT damage after autoing someone is key to Teemo's attritional playstyle in lane, and hit and run/kiting playstyle later in the game. It has a decent base damage and a great scaling, and is just as useful for pure AP builds as on hit ones. It does exactly what it needs to, nothing about it needs to be changed.
Teemo's reactive defense in a fight. On one hand, it's extremely powerful as can completely shut down the main damage of auto reliant champions(Yi, Udyr, some ADC's) for up to 2.5 seconds, provided they don't have on hit effects that ignore the blind and hit anyway. On the other hand, it's completely useless against every other type of champ(mages, assassins, tanks, spellslinger ADC's, most Juggernauts). Its not healthy for Teemo's main defensive tool to be useless(or of limited use, as I counted champs like Nunu who auto attack, but don't rely on it to do their job as part of it being useless) against 70% of the champion roster. As people have talked about, Teemo _needs_ this in order to stay safe, yet in most of his matchups(regardless of role) it can't do anything to protect him, let alone later in the game when he has to face the other 4 enemy champs. And that's not counting the fact that ranged auto's that are in transit before the blind hits are not blocked, which means that even against a Vayne with Condenm on cooldown, it still can’t keep Teemo’s w up as even if you blind her first chance she probably will have lanched an auto already.
If blinding dart is a reactive defense, then Move Quick is supposed to be Teemo's proactive defense. When he was added, it allowed him to more easily kite slower enemy champions as there were fewer speedboosts and dashes, and in general lower mobility. Nowadays, the passive is deactivated rather quickly in a fight, and 3 seconds of MS isnt enough to give him a fighting chance of escaping/keeping up. The intention of the skill is to allow Teemo greater kiting potential in fights, while giving enemies a way to shut it down to have a chance of catching Teemo. But the reality is that unless you are against a champ like Garen who has zero ranged attacks, you are not going to be able to keep it active, making it feel like an out of combat passive. The issue is keeping the balance between Teemo having kiting power in a fight, and allowing enemies a chance to slow down Teemo, because whether we like it or not, Riot does want enemies to be able to catch kiting champs like Teemo, Kalista, and Ashe, because they would be horrible to play against otherwise. Right now, the balance is heavily skewed towards enemies, as any kind of damage will reduce Teemo's ability to kite enemies with matching boots to a singular 3 second burst for the rest of the fight.
The most underultilized part of Teemo's kit. In its current form it's incredibly strong, yet is extremely situational. Its a decent strategic option for positioning mid game, as it can allow you to dodge an enemy(providing they didn't see you yet), or allow you to ambush people, but to use it offensively requires an enemy to come to you as you can only move inside bushes, and defensively it's limited to: Dodging people that have not seen you Becoming invincible to enemies that only have point and click damage(Vayne, Yi,) Stalling for time so an ally can come save you For such an integral part of Teemo’s kit… it feels a little tacked on. Its a situational fight opener or utility tool, and any attempt to use it while near enemy champs usually ends up with them knowing where you are and throwing skillshot after skillshot at you. Its not _bad,_ but to say it can’t be improved would be a lie. Personally I like the sound of that last version, as it would differentiate between Teemo’s e and Twitch’s q, while fitting into Teemo’s playstyle nicely(or, at least, I already dash from bush to bush while in the enemy jungle to check if the coast is clear. Not sure about the rest of you). The fact that you would have to “charge up” movement time by staying in bushes helps give the feel that you are creeping around, without actually slowing Teemo down like the first version of the change.
Shrooms have 3 main uses: Damage, be it wearing down enemies as they attempt to move throughout the map, making it so they always enter fights below full health or killing low health fleeing enemies Granting vision of important areas, such as Dragon, Baron, and the enemy jungler's camps(or your jungle camps, if your jungler is being invaded) CC, cutting off engage or escape paths, slowing enemies so that Teemo/his team have a chance to escape/engage. Right now they do all of these well, except damage vs tanks, and don't have to be changed. But like I pointed out before Liandries is a massive amount of their power, and that isn't healthy as unless you are planning on ignoring the shrooms damage completely you have to buy it, and mythinc item, hardbinding, yada yada yada.... So if the Shrooms are changed they should aim to keep the same power, but less oppressive against squishes and more effective(or, rather, less ineffective) against tanky targets without having to rely on Liandries to the point where its a core item even against full squishy teams.
Suggestions on what could change
The only thing I would change about it is move it's ticks from 1/s to 4/s, like Singe's poison, Karthus's aoe, or 2/s like Casdiopia's poison. It would give a better readability on the damage for everyone involved, which, while it is a slight nerf to Teemo, clarity changes that increase counterplay allow for more power to be added elsewhere. Also, unlike Singer's poison or Karthus's e, Teemo doesn't have a "turn on for one tick to farm and turn off" mechanic for his poison like they did, so other than age I can't think of why it is one second between ticks. The ‘surprise’ factor of how much damage it does is good for Teemo, but how much damage the enemy is taking shouldn't be something that is obscured.
The simplest change would be to make it apply nearsighted, which would have 3 effects.
make it less of a hard counter to melee auto centric champs,while still allowing it utility
Improves its usability against all kinds of champs, and opens up more uses than "damage" and "no auto attack for you"
Allows Teemo to actually participate in gurilla warfare, making it possible for him to pop up, attack, and disappear on an enemy champ, providing he is outside their truncated vision range.
I have other ideas as to what can be done with this ability, but it makes more sense in context so that will be below.
I have two ideas for how this could be changed to be better:
It does not break on damage from poisoned enemies, as well as increasing it to 10-30% because round numbers.
This one is kinda obvious of how it helps Teemo, but I like it because it allows Teemo to keep his speed if he gets the drop on enemies, but if they get in the first attack then they are rewarded with a Teemo that is easier to catch.
Teemo’s base MS down to 325 (WAIT, don’t crucify me just yet), and decrease the % MS boost from 10-26% to 10-19%, and then add on +5-25 base MS per rank.
Now that sounds broken, as an increase of 5 base ms is a huge increase in winrate usually, but hear me out. Rank 1: Teemo would have 325+5+10%= 330+10%=363 which is exactly the same as live. Rank 2: Teemo would have 325+10+12.25%= 335+12.25%=376 the same as live. Rank 3: Teemo would have 325+15+14.5%= 340+14.5%=389 the same as live. Rank 4: Teemo would have 325+20+16.75%= 345+16.75%=403 the same as live. Rank 5: Teemo would have 325+25+19%= 350+19%=416 the same as live. Though a note is that with boots, ranks 1-4 actually give less ms than live. Its only 5-1 ms difference, which may not even end up showing up after the Movement speed soft caps apply. Except for Mobie boots, there is a significant difference there after the MS cap, but Teemo only builds them .03% of the time or so, and they are deactivated whenever someone trips a shroom, so that’s a sacrifice I'm willing to make. The only noticeable thing that would change is how fast Teemo is when the passive is down, and how fast he is when using the w active(if im doing the math right it is slower by a max of 18 ms, with Mobie boots, but that makes sense as we are dropping 14% bonus ms on the w active in exchange for 25 flat ms, which means less of a boost with just it, but it scales better with other % movement boosts) [Here is my compiled list of Teemo’s movement speed with every kind of boot + w](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mkKCcFzXV8PbXseYadoi6z1rs9SN0xGRCFMjw4z3Ito/edit?usp=sharing), and [here is a graph that allows you to easily put in the variables if you want to check it out yourself](https://www.desmos.com/calculatoirneett3wh).
In addition to the prospective changes that we never saw, which to me sounds like the best version(assuming the numbers are not terrible), here are a few ideas I thought of: Teemo’s e breaks on damage outside bushes, but while inside a bush Teemo is obscured(you know, that broken “true stealth” thing Akali had, only there are no bushes inside tower range and Teemo doesn’t have 3 dashes so it should be less obnoxious) and the invisibility doesn’t break. What this basically means is if an enemy hits a scyre bloom or an ability that gives true sight on Teemo when he is inside a bush, he is still not able to be clicked on. Standing still for 1 second increases shroom vision range over the next two seconds. I like this one, as it enhances the scouting aspect of his theme, but enemies can interact with it and it has to be something Teemo is actively doing, rather than just passive extra vision.
Assuming we are touching these, I honestly think having it apply % current health(better against tanks, not as oppressive against squishies), along with the passive poison would allow it to function both as a weakening chip damage, and potential low health killer, without getting into the 2 shot shroom territory as that feels bad to be on the end of. They should be able to kill if you run into a ton of them in a row, but not automatic death after hitting one from a fed Teemo. I honestly haven’t thought of a better way other than that to keep the balance between chip damage and kill threat without entering the binary “die by 2 shrooms or 5 Sweepers” territory And now for my Rework suggestion(do note that while I have considered the numbers I gave things, numbers are easily changed about and as such laying out the mechanics is my goal):
Toxic Shot Teemo laces his attacks with poison from his Kumongu shrooms, causing his basic attacks to deal [10-50 + .3 AP] damage, and his basic attacks and spells to poison the target for [1.5-11.25 +.025 AP] every .25 seconds for 4 seconds. Poisons from unique attacks(autos would be one unique attack, q is one, and shrooms count as one) stack up to three times, each new stack at 50% extra damage(so 175%, which max damage without refreshing the poison would be 315 + .7AP total at level 18, for landing a shroom, an auto, and a q).
Similar to Sol’s passive, I'm suggesting Teemo’s passive be the main source of his damage and tie his entire kit together. Maybe 175% is too low for 3 stacks, but I thought 200% might be too overbearing. Anyway, its not like numbers are not constantly changed.
Sporecloud Dart Skillshot, 700 range, AOE detonation, 300 range, 80/85/90/95/100 mana cost Does 50/75/100/125/150 +.4AP + 1bAD(bonus AD) damage to main target, applying on hit effects(not passive’s on hit), reduces vision range for them for 1.5/1.6/1.7/1.8/1.9/2 seconds, spreads passive DOT(not on hit) to target and nearby enemies
This one has many reasons: By changing it to a skill shot, from a targeted skill, it allows enemies to do more than just “don’t get near Teemo” to avoid it, but in return the cc is better against a wider assortment of enemies rather than just auto reliant ones. It also means that if an enemy can get on you, they have a chance of actually hitting you, but it also keeps his ability to shut down enemy ADC’s intact, if a little less duration. As it is a skill shot, I gave it slightly increased range so that Teemo has something to do in teamfights, but also increased its mana cost so it can’t be spammed The reason it applies the passive in AOE is because I was inspired by Teemo’s skill in this TFT set, which is where the name comes from, and it addresses his issue in the jungle of having poor multi-target damage pre-6. This gives him a pre-6 option for clearing camps/pushing waves, and makes up in part for the damage that is lost from the shrooms(keep reading for that, its not as bad as you might think)
Move quick 10/15/20/25/30% ms Does not break on damage from poisoned targets
That other option I outlined above would also work, I just thought of this one first and it fits with Teemo spreading poison everywhere.
Guerrilla Warfare 1.5 second arm time, indefinite while still/in bushes. Can move 2/2.25/2.5/2.75/3 seconds while stealthed, recharges slowly in bushes. Element of Surprise: 20/30/40/50/60 AS for 3 seconds
Optional bonus:>! After standing still for 1 second, shroom's vision radius grows by 10/20/30/40/50% over the next 2 seconds.!< Basically the prospective changes that we never saw. Not sure what the cooldown was going to be though. The optional bonus is a different take on the “Teemo gains 25% sight range while stealthed” from the most recent one. Im not sure if it would be overpowered or not, but I thought why not? Its not like they haven’t removed mechanics before. Anyway, the idea would be that Teemo can set up a vision network, which enemies are already looking to clear because shrooms, but at the cost of doing things. Great for ambushes, not so much for watching for a gank.
Noxious Trap Deal 10/15/20% max health, and applies Toxic Shot’s DOT(not the on hit) Enemies effected by shrooms take .75% extra damage from Toxic Shot for every 1% missing health, capping at 50% damage(so 109/lvl 6 - 270/lvl 18 +.6 ap total damage, when they are at 33% health for just the shroom, and 472 +1.05 AP for 3 stacks)
Assuming the combo is just one auto, q, and shroom, that is a max of 100% tAD+ 100% bAD + 50 + 150 + 472 + 10% current health + 175% AP(so 672 + 175% AP + auto damage) when the enemy is at ⅓ health. That sounds like a lot, but its not that much for just one combo. For reference, Vigar can do 650 +150% AP with just his ult alone, and then has another 540+160% AP from his other abilities. Anyway, the % current health would allow Teemo to affect Tanks with his Shrooms, without making it overbearing for squishies, while the pseudo-execute extra passive damage makes it so that Teemo can still kill with Shrooms, be it in fights or on fleeing enemies. The idea is to make 2 shot shrooms less feasible, but allow the damage to scale better. It also would only apply Liandries only once, which, while is a nerf, is one that ultimately benefits Teemo as Liandries would be an effective option for 2-3 tank teams, but not a mandatory item for every game you don’t go with On Hit Teemo.
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